Lei06

Crypto Market Participants & Web3 Content Creators. Study on-chain data, track hot narratives, and make transactions that you can understand. I believe that good content requires patience just like good positions.

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Three hours ago, I wrote Chapter 3 of RLS. The conclusion is: trading volume doubled, the price dropped 24.5% from the peak, and sell orders continue to outnumber buy orders, forming a distribution structure. Then RLS rebounded from $0.00829 to $0.01116 at midnight. Since finishing Chapter 3, it has risen by +34.6%. I admit this chapter made me sit up straight and focus on the numbers again. Let’s talk about what happened. By Chapter 3, RLS had already pulled back 24.5% from its peak, with on-chain sell orders outnumbering buy orders, and trading volume increasing while the price did not follow—every signal indicated a "distribution structure." Then tonight during the UTC period, a new round of buying appeared on Bitget, pushing the price from $0.00829 all the way back to $0.01116, now only -3.6% away from the absolute peak of $0.01158 in the past two days. This is the fourth leg of RLS's upward movement. Then I went to check the current on-chain data. BSC main pool: 3,967 buy orders, 4,197 sell orders. Sell orders still outnumber buy orders. This is the core contradiction tonight: the price has risen by 34%, but on-chain sell orders are still more than buy orders. This indicates that the source of this round of buying is mainly not from on-chain trading, but completed in CEX. Bitget's trading volume has increased from $7.76 million in Chapter 3 to $8.91 million—over four chapters, the trading volume has increased from the initial $3.95 million to 2.26 times. Volume continues to increase, and the price followed once tonight. But one thing has not changed from Chapter 3 to Chapter 4: the total on-chain liquidity is about $117K. No matter how the price rises or falls in the past two days, the real capacity for on-chain support has remained here. CEX trading can be very lively, but ultimately, if someone wants to withdraw on a large scale, the $117K on-chain pool determines the real price impact. Another noteworthy new variable: the clone tokens on Solana, which have increased from 1 in Chapter 2 to 2 today—one called "COIn INSTRUction RAYLSLABS" (liquidity $6), and the other called "layer Core RAYLSLABS" (liquidity $3). The increase in clone tokens indicates that someone is continuously testing "can we make a profit from the heat of RLS." Together, these two have a liquidity of $9, which does not pose a real threat, but they serve as a thermometer for heat—more people creating these clones indicates a higher current search heat for RLS. Putting the numbers from Chapter 4 together reveals a particularly interesting pattern: • Chapter: Chapter 1 (last night); Price: $0.00826; Trading volume (Bitget): $3.95 million; BSC sell vs buy: Buy > Sell • Chapter: Chapter 2 (this morning); Price: $0.00830; Trading volume (Bitget): $5.30 million; BSC sell vs buy: Sell orders start to outnumber • Chapter: Chapter 3 (tonight at 7 PM); Price: $0.00829; Trading volume (Bitget): $7.76 million; BSC sell vs buy: Sell orders outnumber, gap widens • Chapter: Chapter 4 (midnight); Price: $0.01116; Trading volume (Bitget): $8.91 million; BSC sell vs buy: Sell orders still outnumber, but price +34% The price and on-chain directional signals have completely decoupled in Chapter 3. CEX funds can price themselves regardless of on-chain signals, while on-chain holders continue to net sell, yet the price is still pushed up by CEX buy orders. What does this mean? On-chain participants are using CEX buy orders to distribute, but the volume of CEX buy orders is large enough that the selling pressure is absorbed, leaving the price with upward momentum. This structure can be maintained, but as long as the speed of new CEX buy orders is lower than the selling speed, the price will move down again. The "distribution structure" written in Chapter 3 was not wrong, it just underestimated the sustainability of new CEX buy orders. The question for Chapter 4 is: the $8.91 million trading volume is already 2.26 times that of Chapter 1, the growth rate is slowing down, where will the next round of new buy orders come from? $0.01116, only -3.6% away from the absolute peak of two days ago. This is the last threshold for RLS in this round. If it can break through $0.01158 tonight, it will create new FOMO, and the trading volume may increase for the fifth time, and the story of Chapter 5 will continue. If it encounters resistance here and falls back from the peak again, then the conclusion of Chapter 3 will only be delayed—not disproven. $RLS $SOL

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A few days ago, I wrote an article: Will BSB become the second RAVE? My conclusion is: structurally, it already is. The difference lies in the mechanism—RAVE has contract leverage, a single candlestick -67%; if BSB is mainly spot, the decline will be more "civilized," slowly seeping, dropping a little each day, until one day you realize it has dropped 50%. Today, it dropped -30.9% in 6 hours, -20.09% in 1 hour. "Slowly seeping," has started to accelerate tonight. Looking back at BSB's price path this week: Last time I wrote about BSB (yesterday): $0.840, +12.22% Today's high: around $0.840 Now: $0.5639 From today's high, it has dropped -32.9%. From BSB's high this week, the -25% mentioned by users is conservative. Then let's look at the order data. Buy orders: 9,460, Sell orders: 8,652—buy orders exceed sell orders by 808. This number has the exact same structure as KAT last week: the number of buy orders won, yet the price is still falling. The reason is always the same: every sell order is larger than every buy order. In quantity, you win, but in amount, you lose, and the price follows the amount. BSC main pool liquidity: $92,565. Last time I wrote about BSB it was $83,691 (BSC) + $210,260 (Base) = about $294K. Today, I only found this one main pool in BSC, liquidity $92K—liquidity has not increased, market cap has slightly dropped from $181 million to $121 million, but the liquidity ratio has actually worsened. Market cap/liquidity ratio: $121 million / $92K ≈ 1309 times. Comparison records: • First time writing about BSB: 1873 times • After Base pool joined: 583 times • BSB vs RAVE article: 552 times • Today: 1309 times How did it jump from 552 times to 1309 times? Because while the market cap shrank, liquidity shrank even faster—when the price drops, LPs in the pool are also running. This is the most dangerous phase of a liquidity trap: price drops → LP withdraws liquidity → absorption capacity thins → the next sell order has a greater impact on the price → price drops faster → more LPs run. This is a self-reinforcing cycle. In the RAVE article, I mentioned that BSB's demise would be "chronic bleeding of -5% every day, each day still okay." Today, -20% in 1 hour, this is no longer chronic bleeding; this is starting to bleed. Is there any contract liquidation involved? Given today's drop and speed, if there are leveraged long positions stacked on top, there could be a series of liquidations similar to RAVE. But currently, there are no tools to confirm the scale of BSB's contract positions; this direction is a possibility, not a conclusion. One thing can be confirmed today: those who entered yesterday during the "altcoin surge" at +12% experienced what today. Yesterday on OKX's contract gainers list, BSB was second, +10.90%, and there were quite a few buyers. Today, -20% in 1 hour, where is their stop-loss line? When the stop-loss is triggered, how much additional pressure does it add to the price below? The last chapter of BSB is not yet written, but today's price tells me: this is no longer a question of "will it happen," but rather a question of "it has already started." Are you still in? Tonight's -30% is the script you expected, or has it exceeded expectations? $BSB

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Today, BTC rebounded from a low of $75,678 to $77,165, an increase of nearly $1,500, with a +1.08% change in UTC for the day. If we only look at the price, today is a day of rebound from the lows, and it looks quite good. Then let's look at the long-short ratio. In the latest 4-hour cycle: Longs 42.82%, Shorts 57.18%, ratio 0.75. This is the highest short ratio among the nearly ten 4-hour cycles I could check today. Two things are happening simultaneously: the price is rising, and the number of short positions is reaching a recent high. This combination is one of the most fragmented market sentiment forms. Looking back at the ten 4-hour data points, the long-short ratio started around 0.92, narrowed down to near balance (0.97-0.98) at one point, and then sharply widened from this afternoon: 0.91 → 0.81 → 0.75, with shorts increasing and longs decreasing in each cycle. This is a period when the price is consolidating in the $75K-$78K range, and more and more people are choosing to take short positions — they are not being forced into it; they are doing it actively. The Fear and Greed Index today is 26, the same as yesterday. This week BTC has gone up, gone down, and today it has gone up again, but the sentiment index has not returned. 33, 26, 26 — it’s not the rebound that has repaired the sentiment; it’s that with each small rise, a new batch of people thinks "it’s time to short." Two interpretations. The first, a contrarian signal: the shorts are too crowded. A short ratio of 57% means there are a lot of short positions piled up in the $75K-$78K range. If BTC suddenly breaks through $78K one day, these shorts will need to cover their positions, leading to buying pressure that could push the price up faster than anyone expects. The denser the shorts, the greater the potential for a short squeeze. Historically, extreme short crowding often precedes a short-term reversal. The second, a trend signal: some are betting that $80K won’t hold. $80K has repeatedly become a resistance level, with a batch of people reducing their positions every time it approaches, and slowly, some are buying back as it comes down. The logic for actively shorting in this range is: a rebound to $78K-$80K is a selling window, and higher levels won’t come, so they set up short positions waiting for the price to go down. This is not panic selling; it’s planned shorting — harder to be wiped out by a single short squeeze. Today, BTC’s price and position structure tell me two different things, and these two things point in completely opposite directions. The price says: I rebounded today, rising nearly 2% from the lows, and I’m still alive. The long-short ratio says: more and more people don’t believe in this level, with 57% of accounts shorting you. Who is right? BTC has not yet made a statement. But one thing is certain: when the price is at $77K and the shorts are at a recent high, the next directional movement in this range will definitely be violent — either the shorts will be crushed, or the longs will be defeated; the calm consolidation is just accumulating the ammunition for this movement. Fear Index 26, Shorts 57%, BTC $77,165. Are you part of that 42% or that 57%? $BTC

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Chapter 3 of RLS. At 4 PM this afternoon, when we wrote the article "Altcoins Surge Together," the top of the OKX contract gainers was RLS, up 17%. Now it’s 7:30 PM, and RLS is at $0.00829. Today’s opening price was $0.00895, now down 7.6%. On that afternoon when all altcoins surged, RLS hit today’s high, and now during the evening, it’s slowly giving back those gains. Now regarding the trading volume, I tracked three time points today: Last night’s first article: $3.95 million This morning’s second article: $5.30 million Now the third article: $7.76 million From last night until now, in less than 24 hours, the trading volume of RLS on Bitget has nearly doubled. The price climbed from yesterday’s low of $0.00436 to a high of $0.01098, and now it’s back to $0.00829. From the high, it’s down 24.5%. Volume has doubled, but the price is 24.5% lower than yesterday’s high. I’ve seen this set of numbers twice before—ZKJ and RAVE have both gone down this path. When volume is increasing, it often means not more people are buying, but more people are using this volume to sell. Every new buyer provides an exit for the previous holder. On-chain data from the BSC main pool shows 4,314 sell orders and 3,977 buy orders today. When I wrote the first article last night, buy orders slightly outnumbered sell orders. In the second article this morning, sell orders had already surpassed buy orders. Now in the third article, sell orders exceed buy orders by 337, and the gap is widening. Across the three articles, the directional signals for RLS on-chain have completed a full reversal: from net buying, to balanced buying and selling, to continuous net selling. On-chain liquidity is $119K, and Bitget CEX trading volume is $7.76 million, a ratio of 65 times. The ratio was 42 times when I first wrote about it. Now it’s 65 times. This indicates that on-chain liquidity has not significantly increased, but the CEX trading battlefield is becoming increasingly fierce. Selling is completed on CEX, which is faster than on-chain and harder to identify by single price. The complete arc of RLS today is as follows: yesterday was "discovery," this morning was "high pressure," this afternoon was "top of the gainers attracting new buyers," and tonight is "new buyers have digested, and it’s falling back again." The two RLS clone tokens on Solana are still there today. One has liquidity of $6, and the other $3. They are now meaningless, but they remain as relics of this hype. Rayls itself—developed by Parfin for financial institutions as a privacy L1—did not have any new fundamental events today. The three-day price trend has demonstrated one thing: low market cap and low liquidity assets, once they enter the rotation of funds, have great price elasticity, but the energy also has a deadline. The deadline for this story seems to have already started counting down. At $0.00829, down 24.5% from the high, trading volume of $7.76 million is still increasing, with sell orders continuing to outnumber buy orders. $RLS $SOL

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Today is a memorable day. On the OKX contract gainers list, RLS is up +17%, BSB is up +11%, and a bunch of altcoins are rising. BTC has climbed back from its low today, up +1.2%, signaling to the market participants: it's time to move. KAT today: -2.8%. On an afternoon when altcoins are generally rising, KAT is falling. This is the first time I've seen KAT decline independently against the backdrop of a market recovery since I started tracking it. This detail is important: a coin rising with the market isn't necessarily healthy; but a coin that still falls while the market is rising usually has one reason—holders don't believe in this rebound and choose to sell during this liquidity window. The price has reached $0.01091. From when the support buy orders were still there—$0.02278—KAT has already dropped -52%. Then I looked at today's order data. There were 2,328 buy orders and 2,298 sell orders—30 more buy orders than sell orders, which numerically indicates "buy orders are dominant." But the price still fell -2.8%. We've seen this pattern with KAT more than once: more buy orders, yet the price continues to drop. The reason remains the same: while the number of buy orders is high, each sell order is larger in scale. You win in quantity, but lose in amount; the price follows the amount. That batch of large funds that once systematically absorbed all sell orders quietly left one day. On the day they left, the price dropped 46% in a single day. Since then, no one has come to fill that position. Now let me mention that one number that has never changed: FDV/Market Cap ratio, 4.27 times. At $0.02278 it was 4.27 times, at $0.01117 it was 4.27 times, and today at $0.01091, it is still 4.27 times. Why does this ratio remain unchanged? Because it has nothing to do with the price. It reflects that only about 23% of the tokens are in circulation, while the remaining 77% are waiting somewhere. The price has dropped 52%, but not a single one of those 77% tokens has disappeared; they have just lost their book value, but can come out at any time. This is the fundamental source of structural pressure for KAT's decline: the disappearance of support buy orders + 77% of uncirculated tokens hanging overhead. When there is no large fund to support the price, every price rebound is a window to release that 77%; the rational choice for holders is to sell, not to hold. Today BTC is up, altcoins are up, and KAT is down. This detail tells you more directly than any technical analysis: the market's current pricing of KAT is "leaving through this liquidity window," not "building positions during the rebound." What does $0.01091 mean? From the above structure, it is not a bottom; it is a price that has not yet found buyers willing to take over. The characteristic of a bottom is "someone believes this is worth buying," not just "hasn't broken through yet." $KAT $RLS $BTC

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This afternoon at 4 PM, I opened the OKX contract gain leaderboard and saw something very interesting. Top of the list: RLS, +17.48%. Second on the list: BSB, +10.90%. These two coins are the ones we've written the most about this week. Yesterday, everyone was discussing that RLS's on-chain liquidity was only $110K, and sell orders had already exceeded buy orders; they were also discussing that BSB's market cap/liquidity ratio was 552 times, and the selling pressure in the Base pool was starting to dominate. Today, these two coins reappeared at the top of the gain leaderboard. This situation itself illustrates a characteristic of today's market: it's not new narratives leading the way, but rather the momentum from last week that hasn't finished catching up. What's the background? BTC climbed back from yesterday's low of $75,678 to now $77,130, marking a +1.03% increase since the UTC opening. It's not a significant rebound, but a small stabilization after a decline. Yet, this 1% stabilization has sent a signal to the existing funds in the market: it's time to move. Then look at today's gain leaderboard structure. RLS +17%, BSB +11%, UB +11%, API3 +8.7%, TRIA +8.6%, KGEN +7.9%, AEVO +7.8%, AIXBT +7.3%. This isn't a single sector rising; it's eight completely different narratives rising simultaneously: privacy chain (RLS), BSC ecosystem (BSB), AI + crypto (AIXBT), Oracle (API3), options derivatives (AEVO) — all on the same list, with no common narrative thread, only a shared background: the market dropped yesterday, stabilized today, and the rotation has begun. However, there's one number today that I think needs to be taken seriously: the fear and greed index is at 26. 26 is lower than yesterday's 33. Overall market sentiment is sliding further into fear, yet on the surface, altcoins are rising today. The occurrence of these two events simultaneously indicates that today's rise isn't a sign of market confidence returning; it's the existing funds looking for an exit while pushing the price up a bit. There are two types of rises in a fear zone: one is a true bottom reversal, where buying pressure starts to exceed selling pressure, and confidence grows with more buying; the other is the last push of existing chips, where the price is pushed up to find buyers at high levels, and then the sellers exit. The fear index at 26 and BTC only rebounding 1% aligns more with the second scenario. So today's gain leaderboard should be viewed in two layers: The gains are real — RLS is up +17% today, BSB +11%, the data is there, it's not fake. The underlying support is thin — market liquidity hasn't significantly increased, no new macro buying has come in, and the fear index is still trending down. Today's momentum is a rebound elasticity from yesterday's drop, not the starting point of a new trend. This week, I've followed two pieces on RLS and three on BSB. Their reappearance at the top of the leaderboard today isn't due to any fundamental change in these two projects; it's because in this kind of market, assets with stories, heat, and names that people remember are always more likely to be selected again by funds than those that no one knows. The next question is: where will the people who entered today exit?

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Today. The core observation from that time is: the liquidity of this coin is extremely thin, with an incremental capital of about $290K driving nearly 57% of the two-day increase—small money, big impact, applicable in both directions, rising fast and dropping just as quickly. Today, I take another look at CORE, and there has been a change in the numbers that I need to take seriously. Price: $0.0396. 24-hour increase: +5.65%. Not too big, not too small, a very normal number. Then I look at the trading volume: $12.83 million. Last time I wrote, CORE's 24-hour trading volume was about $1.34 million. Now it is $12.83 million, an increase of 9 times. This is the most noteworthy set of numbers for CORE today: a 9-fold increase in trading volume, while the price only rose by 5.65%. Two interpretations, completely opposite. The first: Someone is building a position, but doing so very cautiously. A 9-fold inflow of trading volume has only resulted in a +5.65% price change, indicating that this batch of buying pressure encounters selling pressure every time the price rises slightly—some are buying, and some are selling. But if the net effect is that the price continues to rise, it indicates that the buying pressure is slightly dominant overall. This is a "slow accumulation, not rushing to raise the price" position-building pattern, and if it is genuine institutional buying, there is often a period of acceleration afterward. The second: Someone is using volume to offload. The 9-fold trading volume provides enough liquidity window for high-position holders, allowing them to transfer their chips to today's incoming buyers under limited price increases. The price not keeping up with the volume indicates that the selling pressure is consistently hedging against the buying pressure, resulting in the price stagnating, but the chips have already changed hands. What is CORE itself? It is an L2 direction for Bitcoin—Satoshi Plus consensus, allowing BTC holders to stake BTC to earn CORE, EVM compatible. The BTC L2 narrative has seen periodic attention in the market this year; it is not the main character, but every time BTC makes a move, it brings a wave of L2 discussions. With a market cap of $42.63 million, it is considered a low market cap player in BTC L2, and the underlying reason for its price elasticity remains the same: small market cap, thin liquidity, and extremely high capital efficiency. The structure I wrote about last time still holds today: for CORE's size, a daily trading volume of $12.83 million is already 30% of its market cap. A 30% turnover in one day is not typical behavior for a holding asset; it is circulating in fast-trading funds. Where does the 9-fold volume come from? I have not found any significant positive announcements for CORE today—no new exchange listings, no obvious product progress announcements appearing in mainstream channels. Excluding clear catalysts, today's volume is more likely one of two situations: a rotation of funds in the market's Fear zone (the BTC narrative returning, bringing a wave of related assets), or someone is using today's active liquidity for chip transfer. Last time I wrote about CORE, the price completed a rapid rise in thin liquidity. This time, the trading volume has significantly increased ahead of the price—this is a signal that needs to be observed in the next 48 hours for price reactions, not a signal to draw immediate conclusions. Volume first, price later. If the price follows up next, then the first interpretation holds; if the trading volume starts to shrink while the price falls back, then the second interpretation is more accurate. Is CORE still on your watchlist? What do you think of the 9-fold volume release? $CORE

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Hello, the token name $J has risen +66% today on OKX, currently priced at $0.01360, with a high of $0.014439. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the candlesticks over the past ten days form an almost horizontal line, with prices hovering around $0.008 for a long time, the moving averages pressing down hard, and the BOLL bands narrowing—this is a classic pattern of energy compression. Then today, at an unknown point in time, a candle shot up almost vertically. This candle crossed from the middle BOLL band at $0.008874 all the way to the upper band at $0.011478, directly flying to $0.014439. The price is now at $0.01360, already up 18.5% from the upper BOLL band—this is not a "just broken through" position; this is a "has already flown for a while" position. The KDJ J value reading today is 101.27. In standard KDJ, a J value over 100 is an overbought alert. 101 is a number that usually means "overheated in the short term," but it also indicates that momentum is very strong at this point—overbought can continue to be overbought, provided there is sustained buying pressure. What is $J? Jambo, a company making Web3 phones, specifically targeting emerging markets like Africa and Southeast Asia, equipping low-cost smartphones with crypto wallets, allowing users who can't afford a $500 flagship phone to enter Web3. The narrative is "the popularization of Web3 in Africa," and the product is real hardware—not just a narrative, but actual phones sold. However, this narrative has been lukewarm, and I haven't found a clear triggering news behind today's +66%. I've seen several instances of surges without clear catalysts this week: RLS rose 138% with a lukewarm narrative, and ZKJ rose 215% driven by mechanisms. Today's rise of J is most similar to RLS—low market cap, low liquidity, CEX trading volume ($2.48 million) increased, but on-chain DEX data shows almost no depth. A daily trading volume of $2.48 million is quite high for a token that isn't considered mainstream, indicating that there is indeed active buying today. But there are a few numbers worth paying attention to: The price has exceeded the BOLL upper band $0.011478 by about 18%, and the pressure for mean reversion starts from now. If this rising candle on the 4H chart does not have follow-up support, we may see a pullback in the next candle or the following few candles—BOLL's middle band is at $0.008874, which is the center of the compressed range and also the position where the price will start to drift if momentum runs out. The 24h low is $0.008000, the high is $0.014439, with a range from low to high of +80.5%. Now at $0.01360, it has already pulled back -5.8% from the peak—there hasn't been a significant reversal yet, but that upward candle was from the early morning, and whether the Asian morning session continues will be the most important observation window in the next 6 hours. The Jambo project itself has a real product logic, with phone shipments, emerging market narratives, and bundled Web3 wallets—these are stories that can be continuously told under the right market sentiment. But today's rise seems more like funds looking for undervalued narrative targets in the market's Fear zone, rather than any fundamental change happening with Jambo as a project. To determine whether $J can hold above $0.013+, the key is to look at two things: whether the Asian morning session trading volume can pick up, and whether there are any supplementary catalysts (announcements, partnerships, new exchange listings). Without follow-up, this position is likely to test a pullback in the next 24 hours, with the testing range between $0.010 and $0.011. $J

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