福禄寿炒币版

The market's reaction to the US-Iran conflict has quickly shifted from panic to immunity in just a month or two, with US stocks hitting new highs, oil prices retreating, and gold not only failing to rise but actually falling. No one cares about a stalemate that can't escalate into a fight or reach an agreement! Trump's extreme pressure tactics have become a routine, repeatedly threatening, negotiating, and then threatening again. The market has seen through it; neither side can afford a full-scale war, the worst-case scenario has already been priced in, and what's left is just noise. The main focus of the market is not in the Middle East; expectations of Fed rate cuts, the AI boom, and the profits of tech giants are the core. Giants like Apple and Nvidia rely on internal growth, and the friction in the Middle East only affects oil and military industries, without shaking the overall market. Oil prices are hard to explode, inflation is controllable, and the US's own oil production is sufficient. Coupled with global reserves and OPEC's idle capacity, even if the Strait of Hormuz is turbulent, oil prices are unlikely to spiral out of control. Inflationary pressures are manageable, and expectations of rate hikes won't disrupt that. Fighting while negotiating has become the norm, with standoffs, proxy conflicts, and talks resuming after ceasefires expire. There is no full-scale war, nor has there been a complete breakdown in negotiations. The crisis has evolved into a daily backdrop, and funds have long since become numb.

Understanding trading and life amidst the ups and downs — Reflections on "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" Opening "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" feels like traveling back a hundred years, immersing oneself in early 20th century Wall Street, witnessing Jesse Livermore's journey from a novice trader to a legendary "stock operator" who experienced multiple bankruptcies and comebacks, ultimately concluding his life in solitude and regret. This book does not contain obscure trading formulas or empty motivational platitudes; it only presents the genuine insights that Livermore earned through a lifetime of blood and tears, revealing both the harsh truths of the trading market and the philosophical reflections on life that transcend trading itself. Reading it is both shocking and thought-provoking. Livermore's trading career is an epic filled with legends and regrets. Sensitive to numbers from a young age, he showcased his extraordinary talent and keen market insight, making his mark at a speculative firm in Boston at the age of 14, earning his first pot of gold with a meager capital. He accurately predicted market trends, capitalizing on bull markets to reap substantial profits, becoming a legend on Wall Street; yet, he also fell into despair multiple times due to greed, arrogance, and misjudgments about the market, plummeting from great heights to the depths of debt and near bankruptcy. The most moving aspect of the book is not his glory during peak times, but his courage to rise again after each failure, to review his mistakes, correct his understanding, and challenge the market once more. This resilience of "growing through setbacks and solidifying through fluctuations" is not only an essential quality for traders but also a lesson we all need to learn in our lives. The core wisdom of the book lies not in "how to make quick money," but in "how to control oneself and respect the market." Livermore shares from his own experience that the essence of trading is not to fight against the market, but to align with it; it is not about speculating based on luck, but about making money through understanding patterns. He emphasizes "going with the trend," believing that the market is always right, and the only thing that can be wrong is our own judgment and mindset. He warns us that "greed and fear are the enemies of trading"; many people lose money in the market not because they lack technical knowledge, but because they cannot control their desires — being insatiably greedy when making profits, always wanting to earn more, ultimately missing the opportunity to exit; panicking in losses, hastily cutting losses, which leads to a vicious cycle. This principle applies not only to stock trading but also to our lives: whether pursuing dreams, managing careers, or handling wealth and interpersonal relationships, excessive greed and fear will only lead us astray, resulting in nothing. After reading this book, I deeply realize that trading is never a gamble, but a practice. Livermore's life was a constant game against himself — against his own greed, against his own arrogance, against his own fears. He once said, "The reason I make big money is not because I have a high accuracy rate, but because I dare to place big bets at the right time." Behind this statement lies not only extraordinary courage but also a respect for the market and a clear self-awareness. He understood that there is no absolute correctness in trading, only relative rationality; accepting losses and admitting mistakes are essential for long-term survival in the market. Yet most of us often lack this clarity and courage, either blindly following trends and echoing others or stubbornly sticking to our opinions and refusing to admit mistakes, ultimately failing in our own obsessions. Livermore's ending is lamentable; he ultimately could not overcome his loneliness and obsessions, choosing to end his own life. However, this does not diminish the value of this book; rather, it allows us to see more clearly that the ultimate goal of trading is never the accumulation of wealth, but the perfection of oneself. Wealth is merely an accessory to trading; the true gains are the calmness, discipline, and respect learned through the ups and downs, the understanding of choices, sedimentation, and growth gained through each win and loss. "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" is not only a trading bible but also a guide to life. It tells us that whether in trading or in life, there are no shortcuts; only by maintaining a clear mind, steadfast discipline, and a respectful attitude can we stand firm amidst the ups and downs and grow through the storms. May we all draw wisdom from Livermore's story, preserving our true selves, respecting the rules, and not wasting time, seizing opportunities in favorable conditions and solidifying strength in adversity, ultimately becoming our own "winners."

The Iranian military officially announced: Due to the United States repeatedly violating commitments and continuing maritime blockades, Iran has regained full control of the Strait of Hormuz, restoring the previous strict control status, with the strait being comprehensively and tightly managed by the Iranian armed forces. Are you kidding me! Trump is playing tricks, and Iran won't play along; it's all a game of tug-of-war, and the ones who always get hurt are the retail investors in the financial market. Can this news hold up against BTC? $BTC #BTC底部信号持续验证？已突破$77000

The United States plans to unfreeze $20 billion of Iran's assets in exchange for Iran abandoning its uranium enrichment activities. The progress of the recent US-Iran talks has exceeded expectations, significantly increasing the anticipation of easing geopolitical conflicts. Affected by the cooling of geopolitical risks, crude oil prices have retreated and fallen below the $90 mark. In terms of risk assets, $BTC is leveraging the positive news from the easing geopolitical situation, making a push towards the strong resistance zone of $76,000 to $77,000 for the year. However, the overall market's medium to long-term liquidity environment has not changed substantially, but short-term sentiment has clearly recovered, providing ample upward driving force for the market. Meanwhile, some altcoins have started to move ahead of the curve, initiating a preemptive rally. The shift from a full cash position to a half cash position in the past few days now appears to be quite timely.

The war has eased, and Iran is likely to suspend weapons-grade 60% enriched uranium. Neither side has a reason to continue fighting. The U.S. blockade of the Strait means Iran can't sell oil, and without oil sales, it can't make money, leading to a fiscal shock, as oil accounts for 80% of Iran's total foreign exchange income. If the U.S. continues to escalate the conflict, oil prices will spiral out of control, inflation will bite back, and Trump will have little chance in the midterm elections in November. I just halved my spot position; after a cut in half, stopping losses and going empty this month has been quite unsettling. This time, the half position is reserved for risk buffer, as the previous full position was a deeply flawed aggressive mistake. $BTC

The USD/RMB exchange rate continued to fall (6.81), with the RMB strong and the US dollar weak, which was positive for global risk assets (including BTC), but the transmission was limited. When the conflict between the United States and Iran was at its most tense, BTC did not continue to fall sharply (somewhat surprisingly), but fluctuated in the range of 70,000-75,000, showing resilience to falls, but ≠ had independent upward momentum. The cause analysis is as follows: The war did not fall because there were institutional and existing funds to support it, but there was no new external liquidity (Fed release + institutional buying frenzy), and it was difficult for BTC to break through the upward trend. The rise requires incremental funds, and the current liquidity environment has stock without strong increment. The market is deduced as a volatile pattern, and the short-term is suitable for selling high and buying low, and it is not suitable for trend chasing long. #机构单周囤币12亿, BTC stood above 74K $BTC

The U.S. side in Islamabad negotiated to demand a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment and the export of highly enriched uranium abroad. Iran officially responded on April 13, offering to suspend for a maximum of 5 years, keeping the uranium within its borders and allowing for significant dilution. Trump immediately rejected the 5-year proposal. The next round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran may take place on the 16th in Islamabad. Currently, there are signs of compromise from Iran, and Trump's countermeasures to block the Strait are having an effect. BTC has reached a critical position at $74,000, which is the current lifeline for BTC and the battleground for bulls and bears. The high point in mid-March was around $74,000 to $76,000, with multiple peaks followed by pullbacks. The upper range of $76,000 to $77,000 is a strong annual resistance; unless the U.S. and Iran reach a final reconciliation agreement, it will be difficult to break through without an opportunity, and it is still suitable to short.

I was just a lousy coin trader, and now I've become a half-baked military expert. Crude oil has once again broken $100 today, as the US-Iran negotiations over the weekend have completely collapsed. Iran reiterates its commitment to continue the full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump: Damn! Did you enjoy collecting tolls? Since April 13, all maritime traffic in and out of Iran has been blocked. Iran's oil exports, about 3.3 million barrels daily, have been completely cut off. BTC is still performing, standing at $70,000, and I've called for shorts at $73,000 a few times; it's still suitable for shorts, of course, with proper stop-losses. Currently, all the fluctuations are just Trump opening his mouth. #美伊谈判破裂，特朗普封锁霍尔木兹

To eat melons, one must know how to eat them. How could Sun Yuchen possibly defend Trump? Treating the president as if he were not an official? WLFI is pseudo-decentralized, with a secret backdoor, allowing the project team to arbitrarily freeze and confiscate user assets. Moreover, the WLFI real-name team (Little Trump, Zach, etc.) is only responsible for the platform. The real control over contract freezing is in the hands of an anonymous core team. These people are most afraid of real names, lawsuits, and personal legal responsibility. Are they brave enough to step forward and reveal their identities? Hiding in the shadows while pretending to be powerful. Sun Yuchen's ability to handle SEC regulation is also tied to Trump's camp.

U.S. Vice President Vance held a press conference in Islamabad, stating that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement, and significant differences remain, with a return to the U.S. imminent. BTC fell in response, and shorting BTC at 73,000 is like picking up money. Fight, talk, fight, talk, fight, talk... I have deduced the outcome. #美伊谈判分歧尖锐，海峡继续封锁 $BTC