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Tonight, the Federal Reserve's play is really just about focusing on a few core variables, without getting led astray by various headlines. Currently, interest rates are hovering between 3.50% and 3.75%. In the March meeting, they just raised next year's inflation expectations to 2.7%, mainly due to energy costs transmitting to other sectors. According to current market pricing, there will likely be only one rate cut this year, and it will probably have to wait until autumn or even winter. So tonight's decision itself will almost certainly not lead to a direct rate cut; the real highlight will be the attitude conveyed in the wording. #鲍威尔4·29议息：任期收官之战 Two key time points to pay attention to: the decision statement will be released at 2 AM, and Powell will speak at 2:30 AM. You don't need to dissect the statement word for word; after the press conference, mainstream financial media will push out a "one-sentence core" summary within half an hour, which is the most efficient and least likely to go off track. To judge the direction, just keep an eye on a few key phrases. If the statement or Powell mentions phrases like "maintain patience" or "high rates need to be sustained longer," that indicates a hawkish stance, which will likely suppress risk assets, including Bitcoin, in the short term. An $80,000 target could easily become a hard resistance, and the market might dip down to around $76,000 to $77,000. Conversely, if they repeatedly mention "economic downside risks" or "need to watch the data before making judgments," that kind of softer wording will be interpreted as dovish, allowing Bitcoin to catch its breath, with a significantly higher probability of breaking above $80,000, and ETF inflows might also increase. As for the market's imagined scenario of directly signaling a rate cut, the probability is very low, but if it does happen, Bitcoin could potentially spike sharply in an instant. In terms of operational rhythm, the hour before and after the decision is a typical window for extreme volatility. During this time, don't think about rushing in to chase gains or cut losses; it's best to first check if your stop-loss levels are still intact. After the decision is released, give the market ten to fifteen minutes to digest it, let the market move a bit first, and then judge the direction more reliably. Additionally, you can set price alerts at $77,000 and $80,000 on the exchange in advance; once triggered, you can reassess the market, which is much more comfortable than staring at the screen and exhausting your emotions. Tonight, the focus is not on guessing the direction, but on keeping your hands steady and not making decisions in the most emotionally charged moments.

$ETH Evening Insights The second-tier dog fund has been struggling for a long time on the hourly chart, and it finally can't hold on anymore. The 2311 level has been passed. Now, it's obvious to anyone looking at the market that each bottom is higher than the last, and each top is higher than the previous one. What the hell is this if not a rise? First, let's look at 2338; there are sell orders pressing down at this level. If it can stabilize here with volume, the next step will directly kick up to 2380, and then we can look at 2403. It can also pull back first; even if it breaks below 2311, there's no need to panic. However, it can only drop to the upper line of the previous consolidation area and must not fall back into the consolidation range. If it falls back, it won't be a pullback anymore but a false breakout, and then it will have to look for support down at 2251, so we can't hold too many positions. Also, the 4-hour chart looks even better; the lower edge hasn't broken, and it formed a mutated morning star nearby. This indicates that the larger cycle also wants to bounce. If we pull out the Fibonacci, as long as the 4-hour chart stands above the 50% level at 2356, the 61.8% top will easily break with the trend, like it's made of paper. Once it breaks 61.8%, the previous high will be the next target; just hold on and don't run away at the first sign of a rise. · If the hourly chart breaks through 2339 with volume, go long directly, targeting 2379-2403. · If the hourly chart breaks down below 2319 with volume, you can take a short position, but don't go against the trend; just take a quick profit. Keep an eye on the major bottom line at 2305. If the 4-hour close goes below it, then it's time to exit; we can talk about 2260-2205 later. Always set your stop-loss properly; don't be foolish and hold on. If the volume doesn't keep up, get out quickly; don't always think about catching the whole move. $ETH #玩转策略

$BTC Evening Watch Brothers, don’t sleep too deeply tonight, keep a close eye on these positions for the big coin. Just now, the big coin surged to 77370, and it’s the familiar script again—just a touch and then it runs away, like a scumbag. If it doesn’t truly stabilize above 77370, going long is just adding drama for yourself. If it goes up, it can touch 78561–79489; if it doesn’t, continue being the leeks. · Watch 76923, as long as it doesn’t break, it’s still okay, I can hold on a bit longer. · If the hourly close breaks 76923, then be careful of a double top… If it really goes that way, it’s highly likely to drop to 76234, or even lower. · For those holding low-position longs—I know you don’t want to exit—but if it can’t get past 77370 again and breaks 76923, don’t be stubborn with your money, reduce your position or run away. How to place right-side orders? (Don’t get too excited, manage your stop-loss yourself) · If it breaks 77312 with volume → chase a long. · If it breaks 76382 with volume and doesn’t bounce back → chase a short. Hourly level: If it stabilizes above 77312, I see 78561–79489. If it can’t go up? Then just pretend I didn’t say anything. The 4-hour chart is interesting: First, it faked a break below the middle line, then closed with an isolated low point, indicating someone is buying here. Next key point: can the 4-hour return above the trend line? · If it can return → the pullback ends, looking up at the upper boundary area. · If it breaks the middle line again and can’t close back → 70% probability it will go to 73651 for a round. Lastly, let me reiterate: Will that position above form a double top? It all depends on whether 77370 can be surpassed this time. If it goes past, the story continues. If it can’t go past + breaks 76923 again, the double top is confirmed, and longs should manage themselves. 77370 is the watershed; if it goes up, chase it; if it comes down, run. Don’t guess, don’t hold, don’t place an order before sleeping thinking you’ll get rich.

The giant whale was precisely targeted! BTC soared at noon, and $2.6 million in shorts evaporated in an instant! Just now, the market completed a ruthless harvesting act. BTC shot up to $77,400 with a single spike, and a certain whale heavily shorting on the Hyperliquid platform was directly treated as "fuel"—with 40x leverage, a full $2.6 million, and the liquidation engine devoured it cleanly in just ten minutes. This is not an accident at all, but a textbook "liquidity hunting" tactic. The market was waiting for such high-profile, obvious short bets to be in place, followed by a violent surge, treating them like fish on a chopping board to be slaughtered. An even more shocking plot twist is yet to come! Although $2.6 million was just taken away, on-chain traces show that this whale has not exited the market; instead, it continues to hold a position of over $10 million, with the next forced liquidation line set at $77,617. In other words, as long as the market maker pushes up just a few hundred dollars more, the second round of bloody liquidations will immediately unfold. In this kind of market, "it's better to stay still; if you must act, do so close to the liquidation line." In a situation where violent ups and downs are repeatedly squeezing leverage, don't fantasize that you can withstand more than the whales. The safest strategy for retail investors right now is to watch more and act less, preserving capital. If you really can't control yourself, only do light buying during the day, and never hold on stubbornly. No one knows if the knife will turn back towards the bulls when night falls. $BTC $ETH

What exactly is a prediction market? Don't rush to label it. If you ask me, the question itself is wrong. Go take a look at the current offerings in the market; betting on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates is not the same as betting on when a certain celebrity will get divorced. The former is backed by real people locking in costs and hedging interest rate risks, following the logic of legitimate financial instruments. The latter can't even come up with a decent hedging reason; its essence is just like betting on a game of chance at a table. So prediction markets are never really "something"; they are a continuous spectrum, one end connected to derivatives and the other sliding into pure gambling. Now, with regulation hitting hard, no one cares how to draw that line; everyone is just fighting over "who gets to decide." The power to define, at the end of the day, is just the power to tax. #预测市场监管战：CFTC起诉多州争管辖权 Now let's look at Wang's rapid turnaround, faster than flipping a book. Previously, he was on a moral high ground criticizing gambling, and then he suddenly shouts, "America cannot fall behind." Do you really believe he suddenly understood automated market makers? Don't be ridiculous. He was just fed by Polymarket's data. During the election period, his winning probability was skyrocketing daily, while traditional polls were dragging their feet; over here, he was already being "crowned" in advance. Imagine, if someone sees themselves winning every day, how could they not develop a fondness for that number? This is more effective than tweeting and bragging; it comes with third-party endorsement, used to build momentum and solidify support, with emotional value directly maxed out. Plus, with a bunch of interests in the race around crypto, deregulation, and attracting young voters, he slapped his thigh and thought, "This gun must be carried." This is not a cognitive upgrade; it's a calculative shift—calculating votes and narratives, not contract pricing. Finally, if the Supreme Court really rules for federal exclusive jurisdiction, will there be a global migration? There will definitely be siphoning; platforms wanting licenses, wanting to negotiate with Wall Street, wanting to go the mainstream IPO route will rush back home overnight. Offshore giants like Polymarket might be the first to pack up and return, taking off their wild hats and putting on suits. But don't expect everyone to move; those contracts betting on "a certain celebrity's divorce next week" have compliance costs that could keep them playing for years. These types of things are inherently meant to stay in regulatory lowlands, hiding in some small Caribbean island or in the anonymous agreements of a certain blockchain, living wildly. So in the end, there won't be a grand reunion; there will only be a split. Those in suits and ties will go to America, while those running wild will continue in the shadows, becoming two parallel worlds, and in the future, no one should say anything to each other. The ruling in this case won't delineate jurisdiction; it will determine the soul of this track for the next twenty years. Will it be incorporated into a regular army, or will it continue to be wild dogs? Once the answer comes out, the appearance will be set. Let's wait and see. $BTC $ETH

Peace lasted less than two days. Iran made a strong gesture, first calling for a ceasefire, then opening the Strait, and finally discussing nuclear issues, clearly trying to create a way out. However, Trump took the proposal and without much hesitation, rejected it on the spot. The next day, the fear index plummeted from 47 to 33, and the market collectively panicked. But what concerns me most is not the rejection itself, but the three unsettling things hidden behind it. Regarding Trump—Is he applying pressure, or has he lost control? #美伊走向长期封锁：外交窗口关闭 At first, everyone thought this was the old script of maximum pressure: closing the Strait of Hormuz, choking oil exports, and continuously ramping up economic sanctions to force the opponent to the negotiating table. It seemed like Venezuela won that way. But Iran is not Venezuela; it has endured sanctions for decades, its internal regime machinery remains intact, and it can still rely on "dark ships" and gray networks to continue oil exports. Maximum pressure, once it pushes the opponent to the red line without breaking them, backfires on your own deterrent power. During this time, Trump's state cannot be described as stable. Negotiation goals keep changing, diplomatic trips are canceled at the last minute, and he keeps tweeting that "Iran is about to collapse," but Iran continues to do what it does. Aaron David Miller from the Peterson Institute said it bluntly: "What he wants is an Iranian version of Delcy Rodriguez, but what he is most likely to get is a Kim Jong-un of the crypto world." In other words, he may have underestimated the complexity of this showdown, thinking he could copy and paste, but instead, he has fallen deeper into a self-created maze. Rather than advancing step by step, it’s more like he’s getting lost in a maze of his own making. The Treasury is targeting crypto channels—it's actually a cat-and-mouse game. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced the freezing of $344 million in crypto assets linked to Iran, and Tether immediately complied by freezing the addresses. The fact that centralized stablecoins can be frozen with a single click is no longer a theoretical exercise, but a real operational example. However, sanctions have always been two-way. Iran's crypto trading volume is expected to remain at the tens of billions level by 2025, and the local exchange Nobitex has long been converting excess oil and gas resources into Bitcoin, essentially digitizing energy exports. The more you block centralized channels, the more they will dive into privacy chains, mixers, and decentralized exchanges. This is not a prediction; it is already happening. The tighter the compliant channels are, the deeper the gray paths will be dug. Looking ahead, this could be an endless cat-and-mouse game, where one layer of blockage gives rise to the next layer of more hidden infrastructure, until you can no longer distinguish who is compliant and who is in the gray market. Oil prices above $100, fear index at 33, Bitcoin down to 76K—risk-hedging narratives are running naked. Brent surged to 111, WTI broke 100, and the fear index dropped to 33, with the entire network filled with risk-hedging sentiment. According to the "digital gold" narrative, Bitcoin should rise at this time. The reality is that it was clearly rejected around 80,000 and slid all the way down to 76,000, with over $100 million in long positions liquidated. When geopolitical crises arise, Bitcoin kneels in respect first. The reason is not complicated. Large funds still treat Bitcoin as a high-beta risk asset, not a safe haven. Rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, which in turn compresses the Federal Reserve's space for rate cuts; the pressure of interest rate paths on crypto assets is far more tangible than the narrative of "non-sovereign assets." At such times, the market buys liquidity expectations, not narratives. The more stubborn the inflation, the further away the rate cuts, and the harder it is for Bitcoin to lift its head. In the short term, this geopolitical risk-hedging narrative cannot hold. The oil market will take at least four to six months to recover, inflationary pressures will not ease, and the Federal Reserve has no motivation to loosen. The "geopolitical risk premium" is being replaced by "interest rate risk discount." But looking a bit further ahead, this narrative will not die; it is just temporarily stunned. If long-term blockades really force a larger-scale sovereign-level on-chain demand—such as Iran being compelled to conduct oil settlements on-chain on a larger scale—then Bitcoin's role as digital gold may return in a stronger form after the storm. The only question is, before returning to that narrative, how many rounds of deleveraging the market still has to endure. This is the current situation: geopolitical conflicts are escalating, Bitcoin is falling along with risk assets, the risk-hedging narrative is temporarily ineffective, but the game of on-chain regulation and anti-regulation is accelerating. It looks chaotic, but the logic is actually very clear; it just doesn't favor the bulls.

Oh my god I’m really going to be stunned by this AI century lawsuit. This isn’t just a legal battle; it’s clearly a game of intentions between big shots + a commercial shadow war! #马斯克vs奥特曼：$1300亿AI世纪庭审 Musk keeps shouting, "We must never hollow out a charitable organization," clinging to OpenAI's abandonment of its non-profit roots, acting like he’s fighting for justice in the public interest. But everyone knows he turned around and started xAI, clearly aiming to compete with OpenAI for market share and go head-to-head. He talks about doing it for all humanity, for charity, but his actions are all about commercial competition. If it were you, would you believe this line in front of the jury? To put it bluntly, no one is a fool. And the revelation in the trial about "species discrimination" is truly mind-blowing! Who would have thought that OpenAI's birth was actually due to Musk having a fight with Larry Page, and being provoked by the term "species discriminator," which led him to create OpenAI focused on AI safety out of spite? If it weren’t for that argument back then, OpenAI, which is now globally popular, wouldn’t even exist? It turns out that the so-called AI safety movement started from such a dramatic event, and the more I think about it, the more I feel emotional. What’s more critical is that this really concerns the future of the entire AI field! If Musk wins in the end and OpenAI is forced to revert to a purely non-profit organization, the current industry tactic of "first establishing a non-profit persona, then crazily financing for commercialization" will be completely unfeasible. The entire financing and corporate governance rules of the AI industry will have to be overturned and rebuilt, and the thousands of billions Microsoft invested will be at stake, leading to a major upheaval in the industry landscape. Ultimately, what these two are fighting over is not that $130 billion, but whether AI should follow the path of capital profit-seeking or stick to the original intention of benefiting humanity. The outcome of this lawsuit will directly affect the future direction of AI, and we ordinary people can just wait to see the final outcome!

4.29 Afternoon | Big and Small Coins, Don't Get Fooled by the Spike Brothers, good afternoon. That spike yesterday on the big and small coins was pretty intense, right? How many people got swept off the bus? BTC | Is it a false breakdown or a real test? Just keep an eye on this level The big coin took a dive yesterday, hitting a low around 75623, then slowly recovered back above 76234. This kind of movement can be boiled down to two possibilities: 1. The main force is washing out positions, deliberately triggering long stop losses, then pulling back up. 2. It’s really tired, unable to rebound, and continues to slide down. How to differentiate? Watch 76767. · If it can regain above 76767, then the previous downward trend is basically over, and the market will first aim for the key level of 77370. · After hitting 77370, only a true breakout can lead to 78561. Otherwise, it’s just a rebound, so don’t shout "bull market" at the first sign of a rise. Bottom line: 75623 If it breaks below this and can’t recover, don’t hesitate, long positions should exit, and look down to 74973. · Right-side long: If it breaks through 76570 with volume, I will directly enter a position, placing the stop loss below the recent low. · Right-side short: If it breaks down 76133 with volume and fails to reclaim, I will short. · Hourly chart stabilizing above 76570: Look up to 77399 - 78504; if it can’t hold, it’s nothing. · 4-hour closing below 75985: Look down to 74950 - 73718. 77370 is the dignity line for bulls, 75623 is the bottom line. If it breaks the latter, don’t fight it. --- ETH | Converging to a point, time to choose a direction The small coin hit a low around 2251 yesterday, which is a small support, and has bounced back. It’s now still grinding in a gradually narrowing range, with resistance around 2311. · If it can break through 2311, then the hurdle at 2295 will also be cleared, opening up space above: 2338 → 2381. · If it can’t break through, it will have to test 2251 again, forming a double bottom before pushing up. · Right-side long: If it breaks through 2295 with volume, I’ll chase it directly; if it’s a false breakout and comes back, I’ll stop loss. · Right-side short: If it breaks down 2278 with volume, I’ll short, no pattern. · Left-side dip buy: If it pulls back to 2235 and holds, I’ll take a long position, placing the stop loss at 2196. Additionally, I’ll place a short order around 2381 to test it, with unconditional stop loss at 2416. This position has a decent risk-reward ratio. Some brothers like to set grid orders or catch spikes, so I’ll place a long at 2177, with a stop loss at 2133. But be careful, if it really gets to this level, it means 2251 has failed, so don’t go heavy on the position. Pressure / Support to take a look: · Upper: 2295 / 2338 / 2381 · Lower: 2258 / 2221 / 2175 · 4-hour break below 2267: Look down to 2221 - 2171 · If the big coin can’t hold 77370, treat all rises as rebounds, don’t shout "bull market" at the first rise. · If the small coin can’t break 2311, it’s the end of the monkey market, with spikes up and down, don’t chase the rise or fall. · Having a stop loss isn’t about fearing losses, it’s about preventing you from holding on until you explode. I’ve seen too many people go from floating profits to liquidation, just one word: greed. · If you’re wrong, admit it; if you’re right, take it. Don’t fall in love with the market.

LayerZero has committed over 10,000 ETH to support Aave following the recent Kelp DAO vulnerability incident that has stirred up quite a commotion. Honestly, I have a lot of feelings about this and want to share some heartfelt thoughts with everyone. # LayerZero承诺超1万枚ETH支持Aave To be honest, seeing the loss of $292 million and then looking at the $23 million that LayerZero has put forward, my first reaction is that this compensation is really far from enough. The root of the whole issue lies in the configuration vulnerabilities of the underlying infrastructure. As a core participant, they should bear the corresponding responsibility, but this amount doesn't even cover the tip of the iceberg of the losses, let alone compensate the users who were truly affected. Saying they are taking responsibility feels more like a symbolic gesture out of helplessness, and it honestly leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Looking at the current state of the DeFi space, when a security incident occurs, there is no accountability or safety net, and instead, it has become the norm to rely on industry crowdfunding to fill the gaps. Many people say this is a sign of industry maturity and a reflection of decentralization, that everyone is banding together to weather the storm. But if you think about it calmly, isn't this just enabling bad behavior? The underlying protocols are only focused on moving forward and expanding, neglecting security issues, thinking that if something goes wrong, the entire industry will help cover the losses, so they don't have to bear the full cost themselves. Over time, who will still prioritize security? This is not maturity; it is clearly laying hidden dangers for the entire industry. And then there's the 71 million ETH frozen by Arbitrum, which still hasn't been unfrozen. It cannot be denied that freezing the hacker's assets has indeed prevented greater losses, but I can't help but wonder: what kind of boundaries should the DAO's emergency powers have? The most precious aspect of blockchain is its resistance to censorship and immutability. This time it is aimed at hackers, and everyone feels it's fine, but once this door is opened, who will define what constitutes an "emergency situation"? Who can guarantee that this power won't be abused? Clearly, this is a decentralized industry, yet it relies on the emergency decisions of a few to maintain stability, which is quite concerning. Having been involved in DeFi for so long, I sincerely hope this industry can get better and better. But with unclear security responsibilities and vague governance boundaries, relying solely on collective firefighting will ultimately not lead to long-term success. I just hope that in the future, the underlying protocols can take on more responsibility and have less luck, and that the industry can have fewer vulnerabilities and more peace of mind.

On April 29, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision in the early hours of the next day, with the market generally betting that it will remain unchanged. However, based on past experience, Bitcoin prices often come under pressure after FOMC meetings, and investors need to stay vigilant. Renowned crypto asset analyst Crypto Rover stated that since July 2025, Bitcoin has almost always declined after each Federal Reserve meeting. He predicts that the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged after this meeting. From recent market activity, Bitcoin has attempted multiple times to challenge the $79,500 level over the past week but has faced significant selling pressure and retreated, currently hovering around $77,000. Notably, at the end of 2025, the Federal Reserve had three consecutive rate cuts, each by 25 basis points. Although rate cuts are generally seen as favorable for risk assets, Bitcoin did not receive a boost after these three rounds of cuts and instead continued to weaken. However, some analysts hold a completely different view. They believe this could be the last FOMC meeting chaired by Powell as the Federal Reserve Chairman, and after the decision is announced, the market may experience a "Powell farewell rally." Analysts at Bitfinex predict that the market may first enter a consolidation phase before the meeting, and they do not rule out the possibility of testing the $75,000 level downward. However, once the meeting concludes, Bitcoin is expected to break above $80,000 for the first time in nearly three months. The analysts further pointed out that the path of least resistance in the short term is likely to continue consolidating or pull back to around $75,000, and only a successful hold above $80,000 can be seen as a confirmation signal for a more sustained bull market. $BTC $ETH