HorusZ

Pendle vs INJ: Pendle wins on fundamentals → $69.8B yield has been settled Meanwhile, INJ just pumped +28% → but there is no clear revenue data → Pendle has: A clear RWA (Real World Assets) thesis Actual activity on the protocol Various risk profiles for users → INJ currently: Mainly chasing momentum The foundational case is not convincing (at least according to the available data) --- Perps context (mid-term): Funding BTC: negative transfer (~ -5% annualized) Vol ETH: compressed to the lowest level in months → This is a sign: Deleveraging Lack of confidence in the trend → Not an ideal environment for: Mid-term directional perps trading --- Strategic conclusion: If long → → Pendle has a long-term structural advantage (structural tailwinds) If trading perps right now → → You are: Paying funding Trading in a sideways market (range) → Unless you have strong faith in the RWA narrative through Pendle, otherwise, perps at this stage are a tough play.

Today is the last time we will hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the FOMC press conference, as his term will expire next month. The FED will announce the interest rate at 11 AM Cali / 1 AM Vietnam.

Hyperliquid ($HYPE) – Quick, clear summary: Permissionless perps (HIP-3): from zero → capturing over 35% of total volume in just one quarter Active market count: increased from 22 → 45 RWA perp market share: 52% (compared to Binance: 13.8%) --- Financial performance: $1.4 million in fees/day ~$511 million in annualized revenue Valuation of $9.5B FDV Team of only 11 people → Meanwhile, many DeFi projects at this valuation have never generated real profits --- Key points: Hyperliquid's permissionless market launcher is doing what Uniswap did with spot: → Anyone can create a market → Each new market = new source of volume → Marginal cost = 0 --- User behavior: 83% of traders are losing But the number of users is still increasing +29.6% QoQ → 1.19 million --- Conclusion: > "The house always wins" And here, the "house" is operating more efficiently than any financial institution that has ever existed.

Bio Protocol ($BIO) is trading down ~98% from ATH, while a massive signal just occurred in the real world. --- Key milestone: Eli Lilly has spent $300 million to acquire Crossbridge Bio — a drug candidate funded through the VitaDAO ecosystem of Bio. 👉 This is the first 9-figure deal for research IP developed through a tokenization model. --- Real-world application has begun: Pfizer is using Bio's BixBench: * 59 AI agents * 1,100+ research hypotheses 👉 The agents designed a new ADHD candidate in 24 hours with a validation cost of only ~1,500 USD --- Ecosystem effect: A project in the ecosystem (Clarity) has: 👉 Increased by 211% with just one bet on Alzheimer’s → Bio is not the end product → Bio is a "launchpad" creating the next Clarities --- Market demand: 👉 3 new research tokens are all oversubscribed 👉 Demand has increased by ~40% --- Short-term issue: Coinbase has paused futures at $0.029 → On the surface: negative But: 👉 The exchange is not pricing based on a $300 million exit in pharma --- Core argument: * Exit has occurred * Model has been proven * Revenue/value has been established 👉 But the market has not repriced yet --- Conclusion: This is the gap between: 👉 Reality (what has actually happened) and 👉 Market pricing (current market price) --- Message: When the model has proven its value, the price is just a matter of time.

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) currently has a market cap of ~638 million USD with about 40 million USD in revenue/year (from 3 million products sold at over 5,000 retail locations like Walmart, Target, and Amazon) → Valuation of about ~16x revenue --- Comparing to TradFi: The Walt Disney Company typically trades around 2–3x revenue 👉 Meaning: PENGU is being valued like a high-growth brand, not a mature media company. --- Financial distribution catalyst: Agreement with Paxos opens access to: * Venmo * PayPal * Charles Schwab → Bringing PENGU closer to mainstream users (mass adoption) --- Tokenomics: 👉 13.69% of the supply has been burned 👉 There is a buyback program funded by real cash flow from toy sales (non-crypto revenue) → This is extremely rare: Web2 revenue → supports Web3 token value --- Upcoming catalyst: Licensing Expo 2026 (May 19–21) Sharing the "stage" with: * Pokémon * LEGO * Warner Bros. 👉 If a tier-1 licensing deal is announced: → Revenue could scale quickly → The 16x multiple will contract due to growth 👉 If only more stores are opened: → Revenue will grow slower → 16x will become "heavier" --- Core argument: This is not an NFT trade. This is: 👉 The valuation puzzle of a consumer brand that is expanding --- Conclusion: 👉 The NFT floor price may be volatile 👉 The token may fluctuate But what determines the long term: 👉 Revenue --- Message: Don't look at the chart. Look at the shelves.

Ondo Finance ($ONDO) has reached $700 million in tokenized stock, but the game-changing factor is not the number — it’s the distribution. --- The distribution explosion: * OKX launched 263 US stocks with the USDT pair → 0 trading fees • 0 gas (4/27) * Binance is deploying under UAE legal framework * Franklin Templeton (1.7T AUM) issued 5 ETFs on Ondo's infrastructure --- Market share data: * 88% of tokenized volume on 1inch comes from Ondo * 58% market share of tokenized stocks → This is no longer an experiment — 👉 This is real dominance at the infrastructure layer --- The market's old question: "Who will build the compliant layer so that 👉 exchanges 👉 asset managers can plug in?" --- The answer is forming: * Binance could build it themselves → they are not doing it * OKX could build it themselves → they are not doing it * Franklin Templeton could choose Securitize → they did not choose it 👉 All are choosing Ondo --- What does this mean? This is not: 👉 "a partnership announcement" But rather: 👉 a moat (competitive advantage) forming in real-time --- Core argument: * The infrastructure is ready * Compliance has been addressed * Distribution has been activated → When all three factors come together 👉 the network effect will lock the market tight --- Conclusion: While the market still sees Ondo as an RWA token, 👉 It is becoming the rail for the entire tokenized financial system. --- Message: You don’t need to win every game— you just need to become the platform that everyone has to play on.

MicroStrategy ($MSTR) is holding 815,061 BTC with an average cost basis of $78,400. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is currently at $78,047 → They are slightly losing on the position of the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in history. The entire roadmap towards 1 million BTC depends on one important condition: → $MSTR must trade at around 2.1x NAV in order to continuously issue shares and buy more BTC. If this premium shrinks: * Unable to raise capital * Buying rate of 1,229 BTC/day → down to 0 * About $14.4 billion in projected Bitcoin demand → disappears Don't look at the total number of BTC they hold. → Pay attention to the buying rate each day. That is: * Leading indicator * Showing whether the confidence in using leverage is still holding → or has started to break.

Golem Network ($GLM) has partnered with Salad to integrate a decentralized GPU business worth $200 million into its network since January. → Current market cap: $133 million Direct comparison: * Akash Network: ~ $700 million * Render Network: ~ $2.3 billion Golem is currently generating: * ~ $57,000 in fees/week * Running a pilot compute with an S&P 500 company * Whale trading up 1,900% WoW This is a project: * 8 years old * Survived every cycle * Continues to ship products Yet it is being valued as if it has no product. The valuation gap between GLM and its direct competitors → is one of the clearest mispricings in DePIN currently.

MegaETH ($MEGA) TGE is tomorrow and the pre-market is pricing it extremely differently: * Polymarket: ~600 million USD * Hyperliquid: ~1.6 billion USD This is the largest discrepancy between venues I've ever seen at a launch. 53.3% of the supply is locked according to KPI triggers. ICO investors are locked for 1 year. → The actual float when trading opens: extremely thin. The part of the market that is mispricing: USDm * 62.9 million USD stablecoin backed by BlackRock BUIDL * 100% of the yield committed to buyback MEGA → This is a legally binding buying force from day 1 If USDm reaches 500 million USD: * ≈ 19 million USD/year of permanent buying pressure The pre-market is repricing due to fear of lockup, not because of fundamentals. The pieces have gone live: * Aave * GMX * Chainlink Supernova has handled 10 billion USD in volume during private beta. The first 4 hours will be extremely volatile in both directions. But looking at the supply-demand math: → Supply is tightening → price compression trend, not dilution.

Morpho ($MORPHO) has attracted $8 billion in liquidity from Aave in just 72 hours after the Kelp exploit incident. Currently: 👉 90% of active loans are stablecoins — a defensive cash flow but with high performance. --- Aave's response: After losing 44% of TVL, Aave was forced to redesign V4 with an isolated markets model. → To be clear: They are copying Morpho's architecture. 👉 This is no longer competition. 👉 This is validation. --- The speed of Morpho's deployment: Right after Kelp collapsed: 👉 Launched fixed-rate, fixed-term lending In the same month: * Ready integration * Steakhouse integration * Coinbase integration --- Proactive risk management: Morpho has: 👉 Timely paused the vault → Prevented risk spread → Mitigated about $1 million in losses Meanwhile: 👉 Aave bears $230 million in bad debt --- Core argument: When your biggest competitor has to 👉 rebuild their entire system to be like you → The cash flow has chosen sides. --- Conclusion: This is not just a product competition. 👉 This is a structural shift in DeFi liquidity --- Message: Money doesn't lie. It always flows to where the system is better.