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If OpenAI and Sam Altman lose this lawsuit to Elon, I’m pretty sure it’s going to hit them WAY harder than most people expect.
I could honestly see their whole company losing more than half its value overnight bc trust would evaporate. The trial just kicked off this week in Oakland and it all comes down to the original deal. Elon helped found OpenAI as a nonprofit to build AI safely for the good of humanity and NOT profits. If the court rules they broke that promise by going for-profit with all the Microsoft $, a lot of people are going to feel like the whole story and management team at OpenAI was shady from the start and Sam would probably get kicked out. FYI, that’s actually one of the things Elon is asking for in the suit, along with major damages in the $ billions.
Once the leadership isn’t trustworthy and the mission gets called out in court and media, investors will get nervous fast. Fresh funding would probably dry up real quick bc no one will want to pour $ into that kind of mess. And right now, their IPO is valued at around $852 billion... that would turn into a total nightmare, probably delayed or at a much lower price with all the extra questions hanging over them.
And then I believe that lost value and momentum will likely flow straight over to Grok and xAI, especially now that xAI has merged into SpaceX earlier this year. The combined entity is already sitting at a massive scale, and it positions Elon’s whole ecosystem as the clearer leader - more focused on truth-seeking AI without the same corporate drama and lost trust in management. On top of this, talent, users, and investor interest will probably also shift over pretty naturally.
I personally think Sam and OpenAI know deep down they are in trouble…

